Monday, March 29, 2010

You Don't Mess With The LBMA - Assassination Attempt On Silver Market Manipulation Whistleblower?

The latest development in Silvergate, in which whistleblower Andrew Maguire has exposed the manipulation details in the London commodity market, is straight out of a John Le Carre or Ian Flemming novel: an assassination attempt. From GATA:

"Maguire told Douglas by telephone today that his car was struck by a car careening out of a side road. When a pedestrian who witnessed the crash tried to block the other driver's escape, the other driver accelerated at the pedestrian, causing him to jump out of the way to avoid being hit. The other driver's car then struck two other cars in escaping. But the other driver was caught by police after a chase in which police helicopters were summoned."

Are Pig Farmers Doing All The Trading? "The Top Five Prop Desks Are Buying And Selling Securities With Leverage ... To Each Other!"

What we should be aware of about the pig farmers is that they could, at any time, flick the switch in the other direction. What the “trapped longs” may be forced to do — the ones that have been sitting on their hands and have been waiting for the bear market rally to take their portfolio back to where it was at the peaks — at that point is start to sell. That is when the volume picks up ... and accelerates the downside pressure.

WGC Releases China Gold Report - "A New World Of Opportunity" As PBoC Expected To Buy Gold, Chinese Gold Mines Become Depleted

WGC analysis shows that, structurally, supply growth in China could be challenging unless there is more funding directed to exploration. Assuming the US Geological Survey’s figures are correct, China may exhaust existing gold mines in just six years.


NOTE: They've got the gold, and they know where to find it.

Bomb Explodes In Athens, One Man Dead

This time the target was not a US-based bank, but an "institute used for training public officials." One person has died.

Is Goldman About To Be Stopped Out For Second Time, Less Than Week After Revised EURUSD Call?

This will likely be the second time the newly relocated bank will be massively wrong about the direction of the EURUSD in the span of a month. With the stop out at 1.35, and the euro almost hitting that earlier today, could we see this trade unwinding as early as today? In the meantime, Goldman will have made massive profits on both trades, even as its biggest clients lick their wounds and wonder what the hell just happened.

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

180 Move Of The Day: Goldman Scraps Its Long Euro Call, Goes Short With 1.31 Target, 1.35 Stop, This Time The Other Way

Goldman's euro target from March 12 was 1.45. Hopefully not everyone got burried under 250x FX levereage following Goldman advice, or "was as it as good for you as it was for Goldman selling you the euros?"

It's Official - IMF To Join Greek Bail Out

Headline: GERMAN FINMIN SOURCE: GERMANY,FRANCE AGREE IMF JOIN GREECE AID

And now, it's time to kill the dollar.

Dylan Grice Discusses When To Take Profits On Gold: Hint - Not For A Long While

We all know developed markets are now insolvent and merely exist due to the continued debasement of fiat paper. Period. As to when to sell: "Eventually, there will be a crisis of such magnitude that the political winds change direction, and become blustering gales forcing us onto the course of fiscal sustainability. Until it does, the temptation to inflate will remain, as will economists with spurious mathematical rationalisations as to why such inflation will make everything OK . Until it does, the outlook will remain favorable for gold. But eventually, majority opinion will accept the painful contractionary medicine because it will have to. That will be the time to sell gold."

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Ukraine and a Tectonic Shift in Heartland Power

On February 14 Ukraine's Election Commission declared Viktor Yanukovych the winner in that embattled country's Presidential runoff vote, defeating former Prime Minister and Orange Revolution instigator Yulia Tymoshenko. Contrary to the positive spin Washington is trying to put on the events, they mark the definitive death of Ukraine's much-touted “Orange Revolution.“

Sunday, March 21, 2010

High-stakes Eurasian Chess Game: Russia’s New Geopolitical Energy Calculus

Today, Russia is clearly pursuing a fascinating, highly complex multi-pronged energy strategy. In effect it is using its energy as a diplomatic and political lever to ‘win friends and influence (EU) people.’ Putin’s successor as President, Dmitry Medvedev, is well suited to the role of overseeing gas pipeline geopolitics. Before becoming Russian President, he had been chairman of the state-owned Gazprom.

Russian Military Involvment in Afghanistan: U.N. Recognises Russia-Led Bloc

A Russia-led defence bloc of ex-Soviet states signed a cooperation pact with the United Nations that is likely to pave the way for the alliance's greater involvement in Afghanistan.

Friday, March 19, 2010

The Economic Impossibility of John Maynard Keynes

By 2030, and "for the first time since his creation" Keynes wrote, "man will be faced with his real...problem - how to use his freedom from pressing economic cares, how to occupy the leisure, which science and compound interest will have won for him, to live wisely and agreeably and well."

Second Circuit Tells Fed If It Wants To Maintain Its Secrecy It Better Get Congress To Change America's Laws

The requirement of disclosure under FOIA and its proper limits are matters of congressional policy. The statute as written by Congress sets forth no basis for the exemption the Board asks us to read into it. If the Board believes such an exemption would better serve the national interest, it should ask Congress to amend the statute.

Thursday, March 18, 2010

Now Bernanke Wants To Eliminate Reserve Requirements Completely

Up until now, the United States has operated under a "fractional reserve" banking system. Banks have always been required to keep a small fraction of the money deposited with them for a reserve, but were allowed to loan out the rest. But now it turns out that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke wants to completely eliminate minimum reserve requirements, which he says "impose costs and distortions on the banking system".

Greece Gives Germany And European Union One Week Ultimatum (No, You Are Not Dyslexic)

"Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou set a one-week deadline for the European Union to craft a financial aid mechanism for Greece, challenging Germany to give up its doubts about a rescue package." And here we were thinking only Bernanke was clinically insane.

What Bailout? IMF, aka American, Involvement Now Appears Certain As Europe Throws Greece To Lions

Goodbye euro. Hello American taxpayer generosity. On the other hand, since exactly 0.001% of Americans realize they are about to bail out Europe, nobody here will care.

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Moody’s Says U.S. Debt Could Test Triple-A Rating

Moody’s said the United States and other major Western nations, particularly Britain, have moved “substantially” closer to losing their gilt-edged ratings. The ratings are “stable,” but “their ‘distance-to-downgrade’ has in all cases substantially diminished,” the credit ratings agency said.

Obama Aides See ‘Extended Period’ of Unemployment

“We do not expect further declines in unemployment this year,” the officials said in testimony prepared for the House Appropriations Committee. They predicted the economy would add about 100,000 jobs a month on average -- not enough to bring the jobless rate down substantially.

Europe Is Hiding Pension Debt Off Balance Sheet And Soon Everyone Will Know About It

According to Edward Hugh at Fistful of Euros, the problem isn't just the new spending states like the UK, France, and Spain engaged in during the financial crisis. The problem is the off balance sheet pension programs that make current debt levels look like mere introductions to Europe's debt Bible.

Icelandic Blackmail Discussion With Max Keiser and Birgitta Jonsdottir, a Member of the Icelandic Parliament

Icelandic citizens have overwhelmingly spoken. They do not care for the bailouts. They also rightfully believe the Icesave proposal was blackmail, as without it inclusion in the EU would be delayed.

Thus, it's good to see some hardball from someone in the Icelandic parliament. Hopefully Prime Minister Johanna Sigurdardottir will be rewarded for her arrogance and removed in the next election.

The citizens of Iceland think "no means no", so does Birgitta Jonsdottir, and so do I. Best wishes to Iceland.





The Boredom Before the Storm (Time to Buy Volatility)

What doe this mean? It means money managers are bored and complacent. They've been burned by betting on continued volatility of one kind or another, so they're pulling back and -- as they generally do -- extrapolating the recent past into the indefinite future.

This in turn means that all hell is about to break loose.

Fox Business Interviews Tim Geithner, Amusing Freudian Slips Ensue

No, what was hilarious was Peter Barnes Freudian slip not once, but on two occasions: "Isn't the New York Fed Wall Street's representative?"... and even after an immediate and adamant refutation by tax challenged one, Barnes asks once again: "But [the Chairman of the FRBNY ] does represent Wall Street and its views." Leading to a response of "No....No...."

Jim Cramer's TheStreet Is Being Investigated By The SEC

We can't wait to see how Mr. Cramer will explain to the Mad Money faithful this particular twist on the hangover of the show's five year birthday bash. Also, we wonder if CNBC will finally cancel the ludicrous Jim "truth" Cramer campaign once this news breaks.

Monday, March 15, 2010

"Greek Crisis Is Over, Region Safe", Prodi Says - I say Liar, Liar, Pants on Fire!

"The worst of Greece's financial crisis is over and other European nations won't follow in its path," said former European Commission President Romano Prodi.

Strategy And Tactics In The Iran-Israel Theater - How It Would Happen: A 114 Page Close Look

In light of the the Herald of Scotland's discovery that massive US-originated armaments are headed for the middle east, it is relevant to evaluate the likely scenario of conflict that could and likely will transpire if the Israel-Iran situation were to escalate. For that we confer to an extended analysis prepared one year ago to the dot by the Center For Strategic and International Studies titled "Study on a Possible Israeli Strike on Iran’s Nuclear Development Facilities."

The President Chimes In Glowingly On Volcker Bill, As ABA and Financial Services Roundtable Give Thumbs Down

Full text of the president's response to proposed Dodd bill.

"I will oppose any loopholes that could harm consumers or investors, or that allow institutions to avoid oversight that is important to financial stability."

Capital Flows Over Trade Flows, Or Is Speculation The Primary Driver Behind The Euro's Move?

Some pro-dollar observations from Brown Brothers Harriman.

GATA Presents New Evidence Of The Fed's Gold Price Supression Scheme, Combing Through Oddly Unredacted FOMC Minutes

"My thinking was that if an organization is so inept at covering up that detailed transcripts were retained, then perhaps it is also inept at completely redacting sensitive and incriminating information. What I found is quite astounding and serves as documented evidence by the Federal Reserve itself that it manipulates the gold market."

Presenting Empirical Evidence Of The Existence Of "Greater Fools"

The explanation: overconfident, under-informed "speculators" i.e., the bulk of traders in US stock markets, who get the bulk of their finance education from CNBC, who do no homework, yet hope the a stock will be flippable in one second at a higher price, just like a house was flippable 4 years ago to some other stupid schmuck.

Sprott's Last Decade Retrospective: It’s Déjà Voodoo Economics... All Over Again - This Weekend's Must Read

If you’re of a certain age, chances are you remember exactly where you were when JFK was assassinated. Similarly, if you’re from Canada or the United States and have an even remote interest in hockey, it’s highly likely that you remember exactly where you were when ‘Sid the Kid’ scored the winning overtime goal in the Olympic gold medal game. These were both "significant events", albeit for different reasons. We wonder, however, if any of you recall where you were on September 18th, 2008?

Thursday, March 11, 2010

Robbing the Old to Pay the Rich

To add insult to injury after increasing the money supply, the Feds then lend billions of dollars to bank all of which played a huge part in making a bad situation even worse. The Feds inflate the money supply and then freely give this money out to individuals who really don't need it but those who really need it have a hard time even getting $250 bucks.

Competition for the IMF's Gold?

While they've been silent since, both India and China have publicly hinted they want this latest batch of yellow bars from the IMF. There's no way to know if a competitive bid would spring up between these two countries, but...can you imagine the ramifications if one did?

The "Repo 105" Scam: How Lehman Fooled Everyone (Including Allegedly Dick Fuld) And How Other Banks Are Likely Doing This Right Now

Stunningly, nobody at the SEC was aware of Lehman's Repo 105 program. And guess what: NEITHER DID DICK FULD. This is unbelievable - the criminality reaches to the very top, yet the very top denies all knowledge.

PIMCO's El-Erian On The Inability To Grasp The Seismic Changes Currently Occurring In The Developed World

Our sense is that the importance of the shock to public finances in advanced economies is not yet sufficiently appreciated and understood. Yet, with time, it will prove to be highly consequential.

Following Up On The Japan Disaster Scenario; Or Can Still We Learn From The Failure Of Keynesianism?

We are on the cusp of a secular shift between traditional supply and demand mechanics, both in Japan and everywhere else, as the prevailing population gets older. Of course, the ramifications of all these observations are just as critical for America as they are for Japan. As we have been discussing extensively in the past, the real crisis is not Greece, not the UK, and not even Japan so much (and as for China who knows - if real, unmanipulated Chinese debt/GDP is at almost 100% as some economists have claimed recently, it will get quite interesting), but in our own country, whose only generic fall back is "we print the dollar." One critical, and as yet unanswered, question is just how long can this particular excuse be reapplied over and over.

Sunday, March 07, 2010

Proof That The Greek Rioters Don't Even Know What They're Fighting For

So are these pro-austerity protesters? Doubtful, it's far more likely they're just confused... but feel free to correct us if information comes out.


NOTE: Anyone who knows anything about the "Battle of Seattle" during the '99 WTO protest will immediately find this suspicious. The Black Bloc strikes again? Fake protestors du jour.

Germany Wants Greece To Sell Off Its Islands In Return For Cash

“Greece owns buildings, companies and several uninhabited islands, which can now be used to repay debt.” Greece must “radically part with company shares and also sell property, for example uninhabited islands,” said Frank Schaeffler, financial expert of Germany’s Free Democratic Party

JPMorgan Tops Goldman in Investment Banking as Fees Swell 13%

The world’s No. 1 investment bank in 2009 was JPMorgan Chase & Co., which took in $4.97 billion, a 16 percent increase over 2008, when it was also the leader. JPMorgan was also No. 1 in fees from equity and debt sales. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. was No. 2 in total fees and No. 1 in mergers and acquisitions, having advised drugmaker Schering-Plough Corp. on its completed $47 billion sale to Merck & Co., among other transactions.

Joe Stiglitz Slaps The Invisible Hand

"The theories that said that markets work perfectly were all based on very simplistic models of perfect competition and perfect information. My own work we show that the reason that when there is asymmetric information, the reason that the invisible hand often seemed invisible, was that it wasn't there. And I don't think today anybody would claim that the pursuit of self-interest by bankers, which is sometimes called greed [don't tell the screenplay writer for Wall Street] has led to the well-being of all of society. And yet this was the central notion taught in almost every graduate school in the country."

U.S. Tightens Missile Shield Encirclement Of China And Russia

If the proposed placement of U.S. missile shield components in Poland, the Czech Republic, Japan, Australia, South Korea, Alaska and elsewhere were explained by alleged missile threats emanating from Iran and North Korea, the transfer of U.S. Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) missiles to Taiwan – and, as was revealed in January, 35 miles from Russian territory in Poland – represents the crossing of a new threshold. The Patriots in Taiwan and Poland and the land- and sea-based missiles that will follow them are intended not against putative “rogue states” but against two major nuclear powers, China and Russia.

Borrow and Spend Economics to Pay for Borrowing and Spending

Interestingly, a crucial part of the stupid Keynesian nonsense holds that the government can, by virtue of borrowing the money, replace any perceived lost "consumer demand", in any economic downturn, by merely borrowing and spending money, even if borrowing and spending money was the cause of the original downturn, and that there are no repercussions that cannot be solved by more borrowing and spending, and that inflation in prices has nothing to do with the money supply but with irrational exuberance! Which doesn't even make any sense! Hahahah! It doesn't even freaking make sense!!

93% Of Icelanders Reject "Icesave" Bill In Historic Referendum

And in Iceland, the people not only don't care about what the IMF or the UK think, but they are certainly making their opnioins against the executives of the failed bank felt, in a way that Americans only wish they could.

Gary Gorton On The Shadow Banking System Run, And The Interplay Of Shadow And Traditional Banking

There are few people as qualified to discuss the stresses of (and on) the financial system over the past several years as Yale and Wharton Professor Gary Gorton, who just incidentally has held positions at the Bank Of England, the Federal Reserve and the FDIC. In a submission to Zero Hedge, Professor Gorton provides some unique perspectives into what we have long claimed was the immediate catalyst for the near collapse of the banking system: the bank run, not so much on depository institutions, but on the much more critical shadow banking system.

Sovereign CDS Ban On Deck; Next Up: Any EURXXX Short Recommendation To Land You Straight In Jail

After Angela Merkel just announced that the use of derivatives must be restricted to halt market "speculators" from exploiting the Greek fiscal crisis (for whose creation Greece has had no responsibility whatsoever, duh), it is pretty much game over for sovereign CDS, the SovX index, and who knows what else.

Thursday, March 04, 2010

Chossudovsky: Will US-NATO Start World War III by Attacking Iran?




NOTE: War is seen as a great way to spend your way out of a depression. (An alternative way might be to create jobs through infrastructure projects as FDR did in the New Deal. Purveyors of the Military Industrial Complex would claim that it was WW2 that brought us out of the depression.)

Renewed Battle for the Falkland Islands Suits the Embattled British, Argentine Leaders, and Others

In many senses, though, this represents a possible "win-win" approach for Venezuelan Pres. Chávez, who is integrated strategically with his two principal allies, Iran and Russia, and, to a degree, the People's Republic of China (PRC), in that any threat to the Falkands could bring about a redeployment of UK forces out of Afghanistan and into the Falklands. This, too, could assist in the re-election of Gordon Brown's Labour Government in the UK, which would be preferable to Chávez as well as to Iran and Russia than the election of a Conservative Government in the UK.

Wednesday, March 03, 2010

Soros is bashing the Euro to help USD temporarily | Webster Tarpley on RT

German ProSieben TV Channel Finds 500 Gram Tungsten Bar At W.C.Heraeus Gold Foundry With Bank Origin

German TV station ProSieben finds what appears to be some evocative proof of gold counterfeiting, in the form of tungsten gold substitutes coming to the W.C.Heraeus foundry, which is the world's largest privately-owned precious metals refiner and fabricator, located in Hanau, Germany. The foundry has isolated at least one 500-gram tungsten bar due for melting, originating from a (so far) unnamed bank, which as the head of the foundry stated made the unpleasant discovery that "not all the glitters is gold."

War Council Convened In Damascus Past Friday To Prepare For Israeli Strike, Iran President Expects War "Between Spring And Summer"

“The timing of the meeting, the way it was undertaken and the ensuing press conference that was held at its conclusion, all point to a strategic coalition being reinforced."

Guest Post: U.S. Dollar Money Supply Is Underreported


The Federal Reserve reports M1 to be $1,716 billion as of February 15th. When deposit currency created by the Federal Reserve is added to the traditional definition of M1, M1 after adjustment is actually 170% higher at $2,918 billion. Its annual growth increases to 29.5%, nearly 3-times the rate reported by the Fed and more importantly, is an annual rate of growth in the quantity of dollar currency that is approaching hyperinflationary levels.

Jim O'Neill Redirects Greek Problems To The Wonderful World Of BRICs, Suggests A German-BRIC Currency Union (For The Sensational Journalists)

Dirk suggests that the momentum of China's imports from Germany is such ( India pretty punchy too) that by this time in a year, Germany could be exporting more to China than France. Staggering! (new idea, how about monetary union between Germany and the BRICs? This is a joke, for anyone in journalism or sensationalism) [since Zero Hedge dabbles in both, we will be sure to pass on the joke to Angela Merkel - we are confident she will get it too - the German people will be ecstatic to know that in 10 years they will have to bail out Brazil, Russia, India and China]

Introducing Amoral Hazard

Put in a sentence.

------------(insert financial institution) exercised a great deal of amoral hazard when they collaborated with other funds to hasten the fall of __________ (pick a company or country) by shorting __________ (stock/cds/currency).

Is Bernanke The Second Coming Of Rudolf von Havenstein, The Central Banker Responsible For Germany's Hyperinflationary Collapse (And Ostensibly WW2?)

But let’s not ignore the parallels either: as is the case for today’s central bankers, Von Havenstein was faced with horrible fiscal problems; as is the case for today’s central bankers, the distinction between fiscal and monetary policy had blurred; as is the case for today’s central bankers, the political difficulty of deflating was daunting; and as is the case for today’s QE-enthralled central bankers, apparently respectable economic theory reassured him that he was doing the right thing.


NOTE: The Germans were hyperinflating on purpose to repudiate War Reparations. The Fed is doing the same thing to repudiate foreign debt, mainly with China.